Crude Oil Market Weekly Analysis
Brent crude oil and light America crude oil (WTI) closed down last week in negative limitation, and the bullish rally stopped last week. Traders believe that The Profit consolidation flows of buyers and concerns about the extra supply of global oil were the main reason for selling pressure. December, the delivery of light crude price closed by 4.43 % at $ 49.65, and Brent’s January delivery dropped by 2.17% in $ 55.36.
The oil price movements last week were more influenced by the US crude oil export report and OPEC and Russia attempt to extend the agreement of reducing oil production. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US light crude oil exports reached 1.98 million barrels per day in the week ending 29th September and exceeded 1.5 million barrels a day yesterday.
Also The level of US crude oil reserves, instead of the decline of the predicted 756,000 barrels, has dropped to 6 million barrels. The level of gas reserves increased by 1.6 million barrels instead of the increase 1 million barrels compared to the previous week.Crude oil condensate reserves were 2.6 million barrels better than the forecast at 1.8 million barrels.
In the late trading week, we were a witness of intensifying in market fluctuations. The Russian president has announced that it would be possible to extend the agreement to reduce OPEC production levels by March 2018 instead of ending that. But on Friday, oil prices fell. In fact, the market was mistaken for the words of the Russian president. He meant extension probability of the oil agreement, and it was not Putin’s proposal.
The largest oil service company at Uthe United States Baker Whois also said in a weekly report that the number of active US oil rigs fell by two units of decreasing to 748 units. At the same time last year, the total number of active American oil rigs was 428 units.
It’s likely that we will see the downtrend of the oil market in the early weeks of trading. Because many external factors are affecting the oil market. During the weekend, investors will have enough time to assess the damage caused by the Nate. The storm will have the greatest impact on fuel prices. If refineries are forced to shut down their activities, fuel prices will be increased.
Also, if the US government abrogates Iran deal agreement, the price of crude will be increased. On October 12, Tramp will speak about US policy toward Iran. If Tramp supports of cancellation the agreement, the oil prices will be increased. Because the possibility of sanction for Iran’s oil exports will also be strengthened. However, an increase in US oil production will ultimately force the oil prices.